"He can't do everything on his own": is Retailleau doomed to make announcements about immigration?

This Thursday, February 27th is a day that looks like a marathon for Bruno Retailleau. With a trip in the morning devoted to migratory tensions between France and England in Pas-de-Calais before his first big meeting in Lille (North) in front of LR members, just like his daily life.

In just a few months, Bruno Retailleau, unknown to the general public before joining the government, has managed to make a name for himself, between his hard-hitting trips, his explosion in the polls and a campaign to win over the right: 62% of French people think he is a good Minister of the Interior, according to our latest Elabe poll for BFMTV, published this Thursday.

But for his critics, the results are slow in coming. "He promises us the Kärcher like Nicolas Sarkozy but in the end, all that will stay in its packaging in a garage", predicts RN MP Antoine Villedieu to BFMTV.com.

The diagnosis is shared by Jordan Bardella. After a knife attack in Mulhouse this Saturday by an Algerian who was not expelled despite 14 administrative attempts, the leader of the party with the flame asked the Minister of the Interior to "act or leave" .

At this stage, 61% of French people deplore the fact that the Minister of the Interior cannot do more because of the legal framework, according to our survey. The former head of the LR senators is nevertheless working hard to make it evolve. Warned in December, when he was kept in his post by François Bayrou, that there would be no major immigration law as he wanted , Bruno Retailleau is now counting on two texts carried by the upper house to advance his pawns.

"I feel like I've heard him talk to us about immigration issues more in six months than Emmanuel Macron has talked to us about everything else since 2022," says a Macronist MP.

The first bill defended by the minister concerns first of all the extension of the duration in detention centers of illegal immigrants convicted of crimes from 90 to 210 days. The text has been in the pipeline since the death of Philippine , a student killed in the Bois de Boulogne. The second seeks to condition the payment of certain social benefits such as family allowances to a duration of stay of at least five years.

While these two texts should be voted on soon by the Senate, their future in the National Assembly seems very unclear. For the moment, neither of them appears on the parliamentary agenda transmitted by François Bayrou to the common base.

"These are typically measures that can cause the government and the common base in the Assembly to explode," sums up a Renaissance pillar of the Palais-Bourbon. "As a result, we are wary of them."

"The Prime Minister has no interest in going into the field of immigration beyond a few words", such as those on the "feeling of submersion" by migration , sums up this expert on sovereign issues.

"It is up to François Bayrou to give him the means to act," acknowledges the former government spokesperson Maud Bregeon, responsible for submitting one of these proposed laws to the Assembly.

Clearly keen to overcome ministerial or parliamentary blockages, Bruno Retailleau has decided to speed up the issue of regularising undocumented people who work, which has been made easier since Manuel Valls' circular in 2012 .

Last January, the Minister of the Interior gave a press conference to unveil a new circular, intended to change the rules in this area and put an end to the issuing of residence permits "left, right and centre" .

"It was like Sarkozy in 2005 when he jumped off his chair to say that we were going to see what we were going to see," says a Renaissance MP, who nevertheless appreciates him. "In the end, when you look at the circular in detail, it goes pschitt."

The changes related to this circular are in fact rather slim. Adherence to republican values, respect for public order, minimum level of mastery of the French language... The many criteria mentioned in this circular have existed for over a decade.

If the prefectures are going to have to apply new instructions, such as the requirement to hold 12 months of pay slips instead of 8 months or the extension of the duration of application of OQTF (obligation to leave French territory), "we are not in the midst of a revolution", believes an LR MP.

As for the many other hot issues on the rare table, few are those that fall under Bruno Retailleau's direct jurisdiction. State medical aid , this system that allows undocumented people to access free care in France? Despite the Interior Minister's promise that François Bayrou would "touch" it , the system, in the hands of the Health Minister, was kept intact in the last budget .

The question of a challenge to the agreement between France and Algeria that would allow a reduction in the number of visas granted by Paris to Algerian nationals? The decision falls directly to Emmanuel Macron who has control over diplomatic matters.

The one on the list of professions in demand which allows or does not allow residence permits in catering or construction depending on needs? It is set by the Minister of Labor Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet.

"He doesn't manage all the issues, unfortunately," acknowledges LR senator Jacqueline Eustache-Brinio, one of his close associates in the upper house. "He reaffirms a strong requirement that we didn't have before, but he can't do everything alone."

Others also see Bruno Retailleau's position as a calculation for the future, allowing him to take the lead of the Republicans, for which he is crossing swords with Laurent Wauquiez , or even to position himself for the presidential election.

"Bruno Retailleau's position allows us to bring back to the Republican axis voters who only heard one side of the story about authority, that of Marine Le Pen," says Horizons MP Xavier Albertini. "He opens doors, he moves the lines, including in our own camp," smiles his Renaissance colleague Maud Bregeon. "He sows seeds for the future."

But by playing the willpower card without necessarily showing very convincing results in the coming months, is Bruno Retailleau not playing a dangerous game?

"After ten years in opposition, we must show that when we are in control of the government, people see the difference. Otherwise, we will be totally discredited," worries a former LR minister of Michel Barnier.

Others rather point out the risk that the National Rally deputies will end up becoming impatient. It must be said that last September, Marine Le Pen had explicitly asked Michel Barnier for a new immigration law at the beginning of 2025 or had threatened otherwise to censure him.

Very discreet since the death of her father in January , the president of the RN deputies could come out of the woodwork, demanding accountability from the tenant of Place Beauvau. "If she tells us 'you talk a lot but you do nothing', we will have to have a solid record to contradict her", analyses an LR senator. "For the moment, we don't have it. We need to buy ourselves more government life time."

However, the Minister of the Interior is far from worried.

"The moment when we consider that our words are no longer followed by action, we will leave, that's obvious, of course," says one of his close friends.

And to recall that in the middle of the reshuffle, last December, Bruno Retailleau had already confided on BFMTV that he wanted to remain minister only if he was "able to restore authority", "both in the street and at our borders".